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Polls are fucking useless at predicting these things.
Actually, polls are quite useful at predicting -- except when the race is so fluid that the night-before poll no longer reflects public opinion by the time that the voters fill out their ballots.
It's my surmise that the Hillary-breaks-down thing actually flipped this race. Her performance among women aged 40-55 was dramatically different than the polls showed, or she had in Iowa.
My guess is that those women saw the two men beating up on Hillary, heard that she was going to lose (and badly), and decided, "What the heck. If Obama is going to win anyway, I want to vote for the woman. Especially if those boys are going to be mean to her."
That could easily account for 2-2% of the swing. Another 1-2% could be the Bradley Effect.
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