FeedsSurging to the Finish: Merkley Takes the Lead!
A new Survey USA poll came out today, and it shows that the Merkley momentum is real: he has taken the lead against Steve Novick. Jeff leads Steve (within the margin of error) 31 to 27. Over the past few months, Jeff's made up some pretty decent ground as people come to learn about his campaign and his record as House Speaker.
Here are the points-of-note from the cross-tabs: Jeff leads amongst 18-34 year-olds 28-22; leads amongst self-identified moderates 35-24 (while playing Steve close on "liberals"); leads amongst self-identified pro-choice respondents; leads 37-27 amongst people whose top issue is the economy; and leads 35-22 amongst respondents outside of Portland.
These cross-tabs are simply fascinating, and show the full scope of Jeff's support.
There's a lot still uncertain about these numbers, with a wide margin (24) still undecided and many voting for other candidates. But the momentum's with Jeff. And his ability to bring in self-identified moderates and people all around Oregon will be invaluable in working to beat Smith in November. I'm also really encouraged by Jeff's success in younger voters and on the economy. Although he leads 36-31 on Iraq as an issue, the economy is proving again and again to be one of the defining issues of the campaign. And people are clearly breaking for Jeff in that category.
There's no room for complacency. Time to hit the ground, with phones and door knocks, to push this into the next phase.
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Comments from site editors have a darker background than comments from everybody else.Well, that undecided category is still pretty big, but the fact that Jeff Merkley has overtaken Novick in his strong demographics (young voters, Portland area, men) is a really good good sign for his campaign.
I'm going to hit the phones the rest of the week to seal the deal with Oregon's undecided Democrats.
And then, my friends, it's on to take down Gordon Smith! Come one, come all, because it's going to take all of us!
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Absolutely Jack! You're right about the undecideds, but that's what hard work is for. Hitting those phones and doors is crucial at this stage.
And getting people energized about getting rid of Gordon is key.
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This is great news! Merkley certainly has the mojo going into the final days of the campaign. I think the most important aspect of this poll is that Merkley is polling much stronger statewide. I know it's a poll of registered Dems but the truth is we're going to need a strong network of supporters statewide to beat Smith in the fall. Merkley polling well with moderates and liberals is also a very good thing. It shows that he can appeal to a broader spectrum of voters.
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