So there's a new poll out today for Oregon, featuring general election matchups between Gordon Smith and either Jeff Merkley or Steve Novick. The results aren't encouraging: Smith leads Merkley 48/30 and Novick 48/35. As common wisdom goes, keeping a well-entrenched incumbent under 50% this far from an election bodes well for change in November.

But what about the relative strengths of the Democratic challengers? Both sides argue the results differently, as Novick's camp attempts to spin his strength and Merkley's camp attempts to argue for the long run. From Jeff Mapes' blog:

Meanwhile, the Novick and Merkley campaigns also differ on whether the poll says anything about their relative strength.

Novick campaign manager Jake Weigler called it "another positive indication that Steve offers the strongest challenge to Gordon Smith."

But Merkley aide Matt Canter said Novick has been spending money on TV advertising recently, so it's not surprising he might poll a little better than Merkley. He argued that the poll does not capture Merkley's advantages in fund-raising and endorsements that will come into play later in the race.

"The only noteworthy conclusion you can draw from all of these polls (on the Senate race) is they all have Smith under 50 percent," he said.

I'm not sure too much can be made of the 5-point difference between Novick and Merkley. The poll has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points and some in the polling business still raise doubts about these automated polls.

What I think the poll does show is that the advantage still lies with Smith. But it also shows the Democrats continue to have a shot at the seat.

Although it's true that Jeff trails Steve in this poll, it's just about within the margin of error. Counting Jeff's massive, state-wide operation, fund-raising abilities, and strong endorsements, I still maintain (agreeing with Canter) that he's in the strongest position to take down Smith in November. Remember: this race isn't a sprint, it's a long, slogging war. Jeff's a fighter, having been in the trenches in Salem. He has a strong record of accomplishment to run on. I've said it before and I'll continue to say it long after this race has run: Jeff is a progressive's progressive. And he'll be able to slowly-but-surely build the case to take down Smith.

And let's not forget the various ethics problems (reported here, here, here, and here) that have dogged the Novick campaign. That stuff still stinks to me, and I believe they won't do the campaign any favors moving forward and if Steve receives the nomination.

Regardless, this poll continues an exciting trend. Smith's running worried, hoping his massive war chest will be enough to bail him out. His record for Oregon is abysmal, and he knows it. He's hoping the incumbent advantage and money will be enough to distract people from the fact of the matter: he's wrong for Oregon, and we deserve real, full representative in Washington.

What are your thoughts on the poll? FYI: beyond traditional, local coverage, it was also picked up by MissLaura at Daily Kos.