For months and months and months, we've been watching and waiting with baited breath for the political scene in Portland to develop. Normally we'd be holding our breath, but it seems that elections are being drawn out further and further from their actual date and so, here we are, eight months from any sort of primary and preparing to take the gloves off.

Of course there's more to the upcoming election than the politics in Portland city, but that's where my passions lie, and so that's where I go.

The focus, as we all know, is on our Mayor, Tom Potter. He's the lead domino behind which the other players have lined up. What's relatively lucky in our case is that there are only two prominent potentials: either the Mayor runs for re-election, or he announces his retirement. In either case, a chain reaction begins and we're left with either a very exciting election season or one that'll be a complete snoozer. Here's my quick breakdown on what happens in each case.

Scenario 1 (Mayor Potter announces his retirement): Our Mayor, weary from battle and coming off of a bruising loss in the Charter Reform election, decides to hang up his spurs and call it a career. At that point, he can vacation, spend time with his family, and cultivate his facial hair more robustly. What happens then? Well, the worst kept secret in town is that Commissioner Sam Adams is entertaining a run for Mayor. He has experience in the Mayor's office as former Mayor Vera Katz' Chief of Staff and has been extremely visible and active in his present term. If Mayor Potter retires, I believe that Adams will run for Mayor, leaving his seat on the City Council (next to Commissioner Leonard) open for the taking. Of course there would be other potential mayoral candidates charging Adams for the right to Potter's seat, but I can't see anyone making a serious dent in Sam. If you had to press me, there's been talk (but it's just that I suspect since he's gone to lengths to talk against these rumors) of Roy Jay, a community and business leader, running against Sam. Or, perhaps he might face Bob Ball, who worked with the Mayor on the failing Charter Reform initiatives (but also is in real estate and has worked with the Police Bureau) and has had his name pimped around? But I can't see either of these guys holding down Sam, who is just too popular and dynamic.

Let's move on to the seat that Sam would leave to run for Mayor. That's where this shit gets crazy.

If this scenario plays out, there are already several potential candidates for Adams' seat: Charles Lewis, a former Adams supporter, has already declared his intent to run for the seat whether Adams leaves or not; transportation activist Chris Smith; former Council candidate and neighborhood activist Amanda Fritz; former Council candidate and omnipresent force on the Portland Mercury's Blogtown Dave Lister; and several others waiting in the woodwork to spring for the brass ring. There could be any number of potentials who line up, and I'm nowhere near familiar enough with them all to offer much analysis.

My expected outcome in this case would be pretty straightforward. I believe that Adams will draw a serious and well-funded challenger, but it won't be enough to keep him from winning handily. At the same time, his seat will be the most competitive race we've seen in Portland city politics for years. I think it'll come down to Fritz and someone else (I wouldn't be surprised to see Smith here) in a runoff that would be quite close. In the end, though, if she runs a smoother campaign than she did last time around (and experience as a candidate should help this), I think we might see our first woman Councilmember since Gretchen Kafoury.

Then again, if the mayor runs for re-election (Scenario 2) then Adams will run for re-election, and we'll be left at square one and nothing will change. At least, in that case, I'll be able to keep the same picture framed above my desk.

So, what's my prediction? I think it's more than even money that they Mayor will retire. Given his history, and the often-contentious times we've seen on the Council, I think he'll say enough is enough and go for greener pastures. In that case, I say there's about a 95% chance that Adams will run for his seat. At the same time, I say there's an equally strong chance that he'll win if he runs (but not without hard work). As for the Council race? I simply cannot offer odds at this point, as I'd need to see what sort of operation each of these candidates would roll out to gather public financing money and get their names out there.

But it will be fun! And, of course, this is all based on my gut and whispers on the wind, which makes me little better than the ever-volatile stomach of Michael Chertoff, except my predictions don't have that much riding on them.

**UPDATE UPDATE**

I've just learned through my sources that John Branam, Development Director for Portland Public Schools, has decided that he will run for Adams' seat IF Adams runs for Mayor.

There's also a nice little piece on Blogtown PDX about Fritz and Lewis, which confirms the fact that the former is planning on using public money. Also, it notes Branam's candidacy, so that confirms what my sources had told me.

Disclaimer: I have worked for Commissioner Adams in the past, but I speak only for myself.